TV News Viewership Sinks...

More proof that major station TV - with their 1000's of employees - is heading to the end of the road...

I've written (again!) repeatedly about the demise of TV in Japan. Some people think that I mean that TV is going to disappear off the face of the earth forever. That is not the case. TV will be around for many more decades to come, I'm sure.

What won't be around for many more decades to come are these over-sized bloated TV networks that employ thousands of people.

Think about it: A TV station like TV Tokyo targets a very wide audience of ages from 6 ~ 86. TV Tokyo employs well over 1,000 people.

A station like Fashion TV in Tokyo targets 20 ~ 45 year old women.  Fashion TV employs about 40 people so their overhead is nowhere near as high as TV Tokyo.

Let's say you are a women's shoes manufacturer. Fashion TV targets your main audience. Yet their advertising rates are less than 1/20th the price of TV Tokyo. As a sponsor who wants a prime audience, do you spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on TV Tokyo advertising, or do you specialize and only go for your core audience?

Of course, you go for the core audience.

Today, again, more data has come out on the quick collapse of TV. Specifically TV News.

Mashable reports:

In 2010, 65% of people younger than 30 cited the Internet as their go-to source for news, nearly doubling from 34% in 2007. The number who consider television as their main news source dropped from 68% to 52% during that time.

Of all 1,500 American adults surveyed, 41% say they get their national and international news from the Internet, up 17% from 2007. Sixty-six percent cite television — down from 74% — indicating the trend is spreading among other age groups.

Forty-eight percent of those 30-59 cite the Internet as their main news source, up from 32% in 2007, while television went down from 71% to 63%. Though the number of those in the 51-64 age group who consider television their main news source (71%) is about the same, those who turn to the Internet (34%) is nearly equal to the number who cite newspapers (38%). The amount of people 65 and older who get their news from the Internet has risen from 5% to 14%, but television remains the chief source for 79% of respondents. 

News is the bread and butter of television.  So, to extrapolate on the figures above... If 65% of all people younger than 30 cite the Internet as their main news source - and TV is losing money now - what's going to happen in 10 years?

Like I said, there will always be TV stations... But the day of the hugely staffed stations is soon coming to an end.

Terrestrial TV Stations Getting Cold Feet?

All the major TV stations in Japan were supposed to stop broadcasting in analogue on July 24, 2011. There was one piece of information that wasn't made public until now, and that is that the Japanese government wanted the TV stations to stop broadcasting regular programming on June 30, 2011.

The government plan called for the TV stations to air only a notice that TV sets that cannot pick up Digital would only receive "snow."

As Yomiuri reports:

Commercial TV stations are likely to continue analog TV broadcasts until noon on July 24, deviating from a government plan to phase in terrestrial digital broadcasts and end regular analog service by the end of June, sources said.

This means the TV stations will not participate in a planned June 30 to July 24 transition period during which the government hopes analog broadcasts will be reduced only to a notice saying terrestrial TV broadcasting will go exclusively digital at noon on July 24.

After the changeover is complete, TV sets incapable of digital reception will display only "snow" on their screens. TV stations plan to start broadcasting an image of a snow-filled screen repeatedly in announcements to begin as early as this month to avoid confusion among TV viewers after the full transition.

The government is so unorganized that it is not even funny. Here we are 7 months from D-Day for these foolish TV stations that agreed to go into huge debt to go digital and the government - as is par for the course - hasn't got their ducks in order.

Hell, they stopped giving people so-called eco-point discounts on these digital ready TV sets already! (Now, don't get me wrong, I think these eco-points discounts, are a sham and the government has no business offering people discounts for products on the free market...) But if they are going to do it anyway, you'd think they would continue to allow credits to people to buy a digital set for at least a year after conversion... But no!

The government can't fill in a pothole in the road on time and on budget; who thinks they can control and run an entire country switchover to digital smoothly?

Let me make a prediction right here. When the stations stop broadcasting in analogue, they will lose viewers in huge numbers and they will receive a massive amount of complaints. This will affect their sales. I predict that the government and the broadcasters will start to quarrel and, before April 2012, some of the TV stations will request that they be allowed to broadcast in analogue also.

This will cause even more confusion and complaints amongst the people, manufacturers, broadcasters and the government. And that will, in turn, make TV an ever more undesirable method of advertising. This will also hurt TV viewership ratings.

The Japanese government will realize that they made a mistake by making digital broadcasting mandatory and then they will try all sorts of "fix-it" remedies - all of which will fail.

These sorts of events will help lead to TV Tokyo and TBS's bankruptcy by 2015.

Major Television Stations in Japan on Death's Doorstep

The major terrestrial TV stations in Japan are in big trouble. On July 24, 2011, they will stop broadcasting analogue and start digital broadcasting. On that day they will lose at least 30% of their viewing audience. If they are losing money now, what will they do when the estimated 30% of the people who do not own a digital tuner drop off?

I have written extensively, during 2010, about the coming collapse of TV Tokyo, TBS TV and TV Asahi in Japan before. Read those articles here, here and here.

Now, after spending five days at my in-laws house this New Year's I can definitely attest to the coming demise with anecdotal evidence.

Booooooooring

My father in-law is 72-years-old. My mother-in-law is 68. These folks are typical prime target audience for a station like TV Tokyo.

These are folks who have seen TV all their lives. The Internet is still a new thing to them. My in-laws are the kinds of folks who turn on the TV when they wake up in the morning and leave it on all day whether they are watching it or not. They are terrestrial TV's prime audience.

Why are these people the typical prime target for a station like TV Tokyo or TBS? Think about it.

Who has the time to sit around and really watch TV for 2 or 3 hours a day, everyday (like people did 30 years ago)? Well, the only people who do have the time to do so are either:

1) Inactive
2) Poor
3) Retired or aged
4) Handicapped or ill

Think about that. Now, if you were a sponsor, would you spend money on TV advertising for people who fit any of the descriptions above? No. You wouldn't.

That's one huge problem for these dinosaur TV stations that have thousands of employees and a dropping revenue base.

In fact, I was told that, in TV Tokyo's case, their sales are dropping by 5% a month and they are losing more than one million dollars a month.

But there's another, more subtle problem that I have discovered during this New Year's visit that makes me want to share it with you; it used to be, that coming to the in-laws house drove me crazy as they, like I mentioned, would watch TV all the time.

At my house, we do not have a TV and I do not want my 7-year-old son watching it. So, it would pain me whenever we visited the in-laws as the TV was on constantly....

Not this year. We have been here for 5 days now and they only turned on the TV 3 times that I saw, and each time was just for 10 or 15 minutes. Then they'd turn it off. After coming here annually for the last 15 years or so, this recent behavior had me curious so I asked my father-in-law what was going on. I asked him why they hadn't been watching TV like they did before. I was wondering if they were being kind to us as they know we don't watch TV and don't approve of our son watching it either...

Well, it wasn't anything like I was expecting. My father-in-law told me that they didn't watch TV like before because he said, "The Internet is more interesting."

I was so surprised. Of course, I'd agree. Yesterday, when my family and in-laws all went outside for a few hours, I grew curious. I mean, they have this expensive new-fangled system, yet they don't watch as much as they used to? Hmm....I sat here doing some work and then I watched TV for 20 minutes or so to see what the new system was like.

My in-laws have a brand new plasma TV and they get all the analogue channels and Chidigi (the analogue stations on digital) and both BS and CS digital. I flipped through the stations for a while and thought (as I usually do with TV) "Who'd watch this crap?"

I think the BS and CS stations have a chance to survive as most of these stations are small and have staffs that number under 100 people. But the Chidigi stations, like TV Tokyo or TBS, that have well over 1,000 employees are dead.

Just because their signal is digital, people are not going to watch the same old crap. Hello TV Tokyo, TBS and TV Asahi! The problem is not your platform, the problem is your content; it sucks and is boring.

On top of that, some of the channels asked for "pay per view" yet they were showing movie like "Kramer vs. Kramer." No joke! No one is going to pay for that! Why not rent it or watch it on Youtube? At with those you can watch it when you want - with no commercials!

I did watch a bit of some other movie about the CIA but gave up after 20 minutes because of commercials.

After flipping through the channels a while and seeing lots of Shopping TV and commercials, I turned the TV off. Not only was the content the same old boring stuff, but, the tuning system is confusing... Instead of one block of channels to pick from, you now have three...

It's not convenient at all.

If older folks like my in-laws have turned away from TV; if 30% of the TV audience is dropping off this July; if the content is going to be the same old thing; and Japan's economy stays in the doldrums - which it will. Then I stick by my predictions:

TV Tokyo, TBS and TV Asahi will not survive 2015 in their current configuration. Expect TV Tokyo and TBS to go bankrupt first.

What happened?

1) No one has time to sit around and watch TV anymore.
2) TV demands that you adjust your schedule to fit theirs. That doesn't work anymore.
3) Minor stations only have to support 40 ~ 80 workers. Big stations need to support thousands. There is no revenue base for that anymore.
4) Other forms of entertainment are much more satisfying and time-flexible.

Considering the above and now, throw in the older folks coming to the conclusions that TV isn't interesting anymore then, there you have it.

Are there any stations that will do well? Yep. I predict that Cartoon Network will always do well.

Cable TV Stations Lose Over 500,000 Subscribers

This article is not about Japan, but I think it points to what is going to happen here very shortly concerning major television stations .

I have written extensively about how the digital conversion in Japan on July 24, 2011 is going to destroy TV Tokyo, TBS, and then TV Asahi. In that order. This is because these stations are last in ratings and losing money now. When the digital conversion happens, they will lose another 30% of their audience.

They aren't making ends meet today. It is inconceivable that they will do better when their audience shrinks by 30% overnight. I wrote about that here and here.

In an article that came across my desk today, I see that Cable TV stations in the USA lost over 500,000 subscribers in the 3rd quarter of 2010. They, too, cannot survive this kind of bleeding of audience.

The Daily Tech reports:

Cable companies have traditionally increased the cost of their TV services each year, often with no improvement in the offerings. As people start looking to save money, many are leaving cable providers. Gigaom reports that it has cobbled together the number of cable subscribers lost for four of the top five cable companies around the country for Q3 2010 and the number of folks leaving cable is growing.

However, Gigaom reports that over the last few quarters the number of subscribers lost from cable and gained at satellite and IPTV firms is not matching up. Many people are just walking away from paying for TV. This is getting easier to do with most major networks offering their programs online free and services like Hulu offering old shows for fans to watch.

What is written here is true but I think the writer is missing out on something else that is going on. There are now services popping up all over the world that offer satellite TV for a one time fee. Here's one called Satellite Direct.

How does that song go? "3,500 channels and nothing on..."

Satellite Direct sells their service for a one-time fee of $49.95 (Ask for a discount and they'll sell it to you for $24).... These sorts of services offer you a download to your computer and give you thousands of channels. Of course, I am not selling this to you. I think TV is brain damage and a complete waste of time, so I don't recommend it. My point here is to illustrate how these pay TV services have a business model that is now broken.

The moral of the story is that this is what is going on now and this also shows why these huge TV stations like TV Tokyo with over 1,000 employees (and the overhead that goes with that) are dead.... How in the world will they compete with a music only - or a fashion channel, sports channel, etc, TV stations that only have 20 ~ 40 employees?

They won't. They are dead.

Read more at Daily Tech.

Thanks to What Really Happened.

Bizarre Japanese Surveys: 72% of 20-some-year-old girls would date men over 40!

In Japan, surveys are very popular. The Japanese love to know just what percentage of the population they fit into. Be it where people like to go or what they like to do or what they think about this or that, the average Japanese, it seems, finds comfort in knowing that they are not alone in their views... No matter how silly the surveys get.

Here's one that was done by the Japan Times that had two things that I thought were interesting. See if you can find the two:

• 72% of women in their 20s who were polled by Yomeishu Seizo Co. replied that they would consider a relationship with an older man aged between 44 and 62 years old.
• 71% of those who responded to a survey by ishare Inc. said that they have already purchased the necessary equipment to view digital television.
• 68% of respondents surveyed by Japan.Internet.com and Goo Research said that they do not read the license agreements before installing new software.
• 44% of women who responded to a poll by Nikkei Woman Online said the first international destination they intend to visit from Haneda Airport’s new international terminal is Paris.
• 33% of people in a survey by ishare Inc.  said that they had something that was discovered by their mothers that they didn’t want to be found; 39.6% of this group responded that what they didn’t want to be found were books.

Of course it is the first two. Really? 72% of women in their 20's would consider a relationship with an older man between 44 and 62 years old!?

Maybe I should start going back to the sport gym! Do you think my wife will give me the money so that I can run around with a girl younger than my own daughter?

"Really? You'd date me?.. Ok, well, can you also lend me a dollar?" 

(writer's image girl - left)

And the second one: 71% of those surveyed said that they had already bought digital equipment to view digital TV. Aha! That is another piece of evidence that verifies what I wrote a few months back that the digital conversion is going to bankrupt TV Tokyo, TBS and TV Asahi.

If you want to read that blog and check the rationale, see here: http://modernmarketingjapan.blogspot.com/2010/08/marketing-japan-why-digital-tv.html