Nuclear Crisis in Japan? When the Cure is Worse Than the Disease

I recently concluded an interview with a new publication that is under the support of Casey Research and that publication s called the International Man. It is a publication geared towards the expat or people thinking of expatration out of the USA or other western nations into the developing world in order to find their success and new opportunities.


You can subscribe to the International Man here.

BING CROSBY - BROTHER CAN YOU SPARE A DIME?

We spoke of many things related to Japan and one of the most difficult questions dealt with the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident. I was asked how this chain of events would affect the Japanese and world economy.


Not to belittle a serious situation, I replied that, in and of itself, the disaster followed by the nuclear accident at Fukushima is, in the long run view of things in Japan, a blip on the screen. The nuclear problems in Fukushima are serious to be sure, but for the over-all view of Japan, that alone is not such a huge event. It is the ping-pong effect that this incident is going to have on Japan that is difficult to access the total damage that it will cause. Specifically, how much bungling will the incompetents running this country into the ground will cause with their ill-conceived and poorly considered "solutions".


Consider: There are only 750,000 people living in the Miyagi area where the earthquake and tsunami struck hardest. This disaster and the nuclear power plant accident has displaced about 400,000 (if anyone has exact figures, please send along!). Had this accident happened in Hamaoka or Tokai, south of Tokyo, it would have been an entirely different story. There are 35 million households in the Tokyo area alone.


At the end of World War II, Japan had over 2 million dead soldiers. Almost 1 million dead civilians and her cities were carpet bombed into ruin. Yet Japan recovered. This earthquake, tsunami and nuclear incident is in a small corner of Japan. Once again, not to belittle a very dire and serious situation, but it is the aftereffects of this situation - combined with Japan's debt versus GDP and a rapidly aging society - along with an exodus of cheap foreign labor that's what's really going to hurt this country.


The actual disaster is bad enough. But it is the after effects that are going to kill us. You've heard the expression that the "Cure is worse than the disease?" Well here is a case example happening in slow motion right in front of our faces.  It is the "ping-pong" effect. And the repercussions of this ping pong effect are spreading wider and wider and everyday brings a new facet to this problem as it continually evolves.  


That ping-pong effect could have very serious and long term effects and cause huge damage to the Japanese economy and, in turn, seriously hurt the world economy.

One of the worst things to come out of the Fukushima accident is, not only radiation leaking out into the ocean is - quite surprisingly -  the fact that radiation has been detected in unsafe levels in tea leaves in farms in Odawara - south of Tokyo. This is very bad for those farmers and a real head scratcher as to how this has come about. It also, on the other hand, dampens complaints that some people have about the government covering up and lying about the radiation levels. If the government were always lying and covering up as some claim, then this information would have never seen the light of day. I'll be the first to suggest that everyone should be skeptical of everything they hear and see on the mass media or from what the government says, but I also have always said that each person needs to research facts. This is why I list the radiation levels in Tokyo that are published daily by a non-governmental, science research group, the Advanced Science and Technology Unit. on this blog. See here. This group does not publish conjecture and just facts as to daily radiation levels. (The fact that a government group has also researched a published results of radiation levels in food in Fukushima, Miyagi and now Kanagawa proves that there are reliable reports coming out about radiation levels of concern to the public well-being.)


But, in the long run, and for the over-all view of the health of the nation, let's examine briefly the shockingly great deal (poor deal for the public) the Japanese government has given to TEPCO, the owners of the nuclear power plant, to bail out that company. First off, any thinking person should be dead set against a government bailout of any privately owned company. Why do privately owned companies get to enjoy profits (TEPCO charges the highest utility rates in the region and owns 44% of the market and is the #1 energy company in all of Asia) and pocket them but when they lose money, they get bailed out by the public? It is also a crime that TEPCO carried no casualty insurance. (Global Research has a great article on this here.) You or I lose our drivers license if we have no car insurance but a big company in bed with the government can run a nuclear power plant without insurance!?


The bailout package is $62 billion (USD).  Japan cannot afford this bailout. It is, also, not really a bailout as such. There will be no bonds issued. TEPCO has 30 years to repay so the actual plan is to have the Japanese government print our way out of this mess.


Throw on top of that the point that a privately owned company is giving up some control to the government and you really have to wonder what people are thinking about. Why in the world would anyone want such an inept and useless bunch of people like the Japanese government - a government who has nearly bankrupted this nation - to take over a privately owned corporation? I think this is beyond comprehension. 


Think about it folks, we are already at 225% debt to GDP. This debt is growing like a dangerous anuerism near the heart of the public. Giving this government more control and more leeway to spend and throw money at problems is not the solution. Adding another $62 billion dollars to Japan's debt mountain is not going to help us at all. The public has shown a willingness to save, but the government has not shown a willingness to stop the spend and the printing. This, plus a recession, deflation, aging population, exodus of cheap foreign labor, and some more problems that will surely pop up as we go - just as sure as the sun will rise in the east - shows that it is not the actual disaster that is going to kill us. 


The thing that is going to do us in is not the disease (all of our problems). It's the cure prescribed by the fools running Japan's government (easy credit, printing money and more debt) that will surely kill us all.


Judging from the way things are going and how the government's answer to problems is always the same, it shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone when the day soon comes that Japan's debt to GDP nears 250% ~ 300%. Could it be that far off? I don't think so.


The cure is certainly worse than the disease.

Nuclear Opponents Need to Get Their Facts Straight and Prove Them with Data

As a king nerd and complete geek, somehow in 1975, at the urging of my high school biology teacher Mr. Howell, I found myself president of my high school science club. Actually, that was alright by me as then, as it is now, all the hot girls are intelligent anyway and they all wear glasses.

O'Jays - Back Stabbers

For my senior thesis, it wouldn't do for the president of that club to write any old dissertation about boring things like the life cycle of turtles or seagulls, I had to write about frightening and earth shattering events like the great coming crisis of that time: Global Climate Change. Namely, the coming of the next ice-age.


Oh, it wasn't just me who worried about such things, the next great ice age that was going to destroy the earth and ruin our food supply and displace tens of millions of people was big news. It was in all the current magazines and opinion leading publications of the day. The one magazine that really turned my opinion and convinced me, as well as a few million other Americans, that the ice age was real and it was coming was Time Magazine. 


I was so horrified of the coming ice age and how food and fuel prices were going to skyrocket that I was convinced that writing my senior thesis about this coming disaster would surely turn me into a genius student scholar recognized the world over. 


Well, that didn't happen. 


The ice age never came and I never became recognized as a genius scholar excepting upon a purview into a hand held mirror.


Lesson one learned about being skeptical about the news was well learned.

Incredibly, I was one of the few who survived

Time went by and I finally escaped university one day and found myself working - by some miracle and lots of skulduggery - at a broadcasting station. Over the years while working at broadcasting, I became to understand something about hype versus reality when it comes to broadcasting; hype sells. Reality can sell, if it is exciting. If reality isn't exciting, then make it that way. I found the only problem with that method is that the reality, when bent to become exciting, is no longer reality but becomes into the realm of hype.


Many of the episodes of dealing with this hype started for me, if I remember well, in at least 1982 when we were told that HIV/AIDS was going to kill half the population of the world and were also told that some scientists believed that AIDS was transmitted by dirty toilet door handles. 


Another early episode was with the first Gulf War and Saddam Hussein's 4th largest army in the world (which collapsed after a mere four days after the commencement of a land invasion); then there was the bombing of Serbia followed by a plethora of various killer diseases that were going to depopulate the earth (in no particular order: Ebola virus, Dengu fever, Swine flu, Bird flu, SARS, etc.) and, who could forget the next disastrous event that was going to radically change our earth: Man Made Global Warming (AGW).


At first, like everyone else, I believed the polemic about man-made global warming, but, after growing to become skeptical, and from several ridiculous experiences in the mass media, I had learned enough to do some background checking. What I found about AGW soon made me land firmly in the nonbeliever camp.


But saying that back in the early 2000's was pure unadulterated heresy and stupidity as, everyone would soon, and surely, remind you that the science was absolutely decided and 2,500 of the world tops scientists had already agreed. There was nothing more to be discussed.


I wonder where those 2,500 scientists are today?


Still, I didn't buy it. Too many things didn't make sense. 


First off, the absurd idea that the polar ice caps, that are floating on the ocean at the North Pole, upon melting, would cause the sea level to rise. Now that is a completely ridiculous notion. Thank god for my time as president of my high school science club. Any 7th grade student can tell you that ice in a cup of water will displace it's own weight so that when the ice melts, the level of water will not rise. It simply cannot. The weight of the ice has already displaced its own weight. Water is the same weight if it is frozen or if it is liquid, it cannot magically weigh more if it melts.

DOUBLE CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE LARGE VIEW

President of the high school Science Club (back row, fourth from the left) 

The second fact that made me a firm disbeliever in AGW theory was when I was shown data that proved that the surface temperatures on Venus and Mars had risen in conjunction with the rise in temperatures of the earth. Now that was a real head scratcher. Unless Martians and Venusians were driving SUVs on their planets then it doesn't seem possible that green house gases were causing their surface temperatures to rise in parallel with the earth's.


No, I had then become convinced that, as many scientists were beginning to state, that the activity of the sun was responsible for our temperature and climate changes. The case was closed for me when I read that a proponent of AGW had actually made the idiotic claim that the sun's activity had nothing to do with the temperature of the earth. What foolish poppycock. One only need to go outside at night and compare the temperature during the day under the hot sun to be witness as to how much the sun controls temperature on this planet.


AGW, it is usually accompanied by smirks and jokes.


I was absolutely right then and I am proven right now.


Which now brings me to the subject of the day: the nuclear accident at Fukushima and how much this incident is going to change our lives and livelihood. If you talk to one camp, the anti-nuclear crowd (who, incidentally, seems to be the very same crowd who claimed that AGW would destroy the climate and over 50 million of earth's inhabitants would be "Global Warming refugees" by 2010... Which, of course, never happened) you'll hear a shrill and growing shriller prophesy of doom, death and world destruction.


If you listen to what is increasingly being described as the pro-nuclear crowd, you seem to hear a much more level headed debate. At least, that's what it seems like to me.


Perhaps I think this way because I've heard this prophesy of doom are too often and, in too many cases, it seems illogical. contradictory and simply not practical.  


My good friend, Scott M, sends me a recent article from the Guardian UK written by George Monbiot that asks some of the same questions that I ask of the panic and doom crowd. It was the same questions I asked of that crowd concerning AGW, Swine flu, Bird flu and the others. Specifically, "Where is your proof? Show me some facts." 

Here are selected parts from that article entitled, "Nuclear Opponents Have a Moral Duty to Get Their Facts Straight." In this article, George Monbiot takes to task one of the most vocal anti-nuclear activists, Helen Caldicott for making a wide array of unsubstantiated claims:

As governments ponder a disastrous move away from nuclear power, it is vital campaigners don't spread misinformation – but Helen Caldicott fails to interrogate her own claims and sources.

My request to Helen Caldicott was a simple one: I asked her to give me sources for the claims she had made about the effects of radiation. Helen had made a number of startling statements during a television debate, and I wanted to know whether or not they were correct. Scientific claims are only as good as their sources.

Here are three examples of the questions I asked, and the answers she gave me.

At first I asked for general sources for her claims. She sent me nine documents: press releases, newspapers articles and an advertisement. Only one of them was linked to a scientific publication: the BEIR VII report published by the National Academy of Sciences. She urged me to read it. I did so and discovered that, far from supporting her claims, it starkly contradicts them. For example, it says:

• The risk of radiation-induced mutations in sperm and eggs, resulting in heritable disease "is sufficiently small that it has not been detected in humans, even in thoroughly studied irradiated populations such as those of Hiroshima and Nagasaki".

• Regarding transmissible genetic damage from the exposure of future parents, such as "spontaneous abortions, congenital malformations, neonatal mortality, still births and the sex ratio of offspring … there is no consistent evidence of an association of any such outcomes with exposure to environmental sources of radiation."

• "On balance, the existing evidence does not support the conclusion that rates of childhood leukaemia have increased as a result of radiation exposures from the Chernobyl accident".

I began to wonder whether Helen has actually read this report, or was hoping that, at 423 pages, it would scare me away. The PDF costs $46.

She claimed that isotopes of krypton, xenon and argon "can mutate the genes in the eggs and sperm and cause genetic disease". When I asked her for a source, she told me, "This is also described in my book." In fact her book says (p55): "There have never been any epidemiological studies performed on the effects of exposure to the noble gases xenon and krypton." This flatly contradicts her own claim.

When I pressed her for better sources, her publishers wrote to me and said she did not have time to find them. 

Then she appears to suggest that iodine-131 can "continuously irradiate small volumes of cells … over many years". As it has a half life of eight days, this seems unlikely. Again, a source would help to clear the matter up..

Then she makes a remarkable allegation: as a result of a conspiracy hatched with the International Atomic Energy Agency, since 1959 the World Health Organisation has "made no more statements on health and radioactivity". This is completely false, as even the quickest search would have shown her.

Helen has still not provided a shred of evidence for her claim that the recent report by another UN agency – the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation – into the Chernobyl disaster is "a total cover-up". Twice I have asked her to substantiate this allegation; twice she has replied with accusations about the WHO. Is she aware that these are different agencies?

Finally, George Monbiot comes to the crux of the problem and something that I have stated over and over in this very blog: When people are making wild statements using terms such as "if," "perhaps," "maybe" and "possibly" - as they have been doing lavishly when describing what could or might happen at Fukushima, the only thing intelligent and logical people can and should do is to examine only the facts. He continues:

I believe that journalists should not stand by while misinformation is spread. If there is any value in journalism, it lies in trying to winnow fact from fiction, and helping people to form a more accurate view of the world.

This is an especially difficult time to try to make the case for keeping the dangers of nuclear power in perspective. The frightening events at Fukushima are still unfolding, the disaster has been upgraded to category 7, making it one of the two worst such events on record. But it is just when the case is hardest that it most urgently needs to be made, however much anger this generates. If we don't stick to the facts, if we don't subject all claims to the same degree of scepticism, we could make a bad situation worse.

This is an excellent article and I highly recommend that you go to the source and read it in full here.


As for me, I am all too often placed in the pro-nuclear crowd. It is a title of which I would deny. I am firmly in the camp of the anti-government, anti-war and free market crowd. I am also in the camp of the crowd who wants the truth and not so-called "news" that is based upon conjecture, supposition, hypothesis, theory, thesis, speculation, hunches, or guesswork. Those all have their place but they do not have any place in the news; they do have a pace in talk shows or news stand tabloid sensationalism.


I also believe in the miracles of the free market and what it can do to better our lives through unfettered technology. I have seen facts as to what coal mining and burning coal does to our environment and our health. I know also of the well documented dangers to our health that burning oil causes along with the rape and pillage of the people upon whose land that oil rests.


It seems to me that the only safe and logical choice is to continue with nuclear power and to better our technology and create more of the extremely safe fast breeder types of reactors that have already been developed and tested... Why we are still using 40-year-old technology in our current nuclear reactors is a testament to government interference and the confused - and constantly evolving - stand of the environmentalist movement. First rate airlines have all stopped using 30-year-old aircraft, namely Boeing 747, in their fleets as they are aged and becoming increasingly unreliable. Why in the world do first rate economies still use 40-year-old nuclear reactors when third generation breeders which have been shown and tested as an extremely safe alternative is a mystery. 


So called Alternative energy sources such as solar power and wind turbines are fine for refrigerators, heating bathtubs, and running transistor radios and TV sets. But they could never generate enough power to run a steel mill or a mass transit subway line. Frankly speaking, until now, they are massive and expensive failures.


We need to continue to allow technology make our lives better, in spite of the risks, and until the risks are shown to outweigh the benefits. To this end, nuclear power is our only viable source for the near and foreseeable future. We must strive on to develop completely safe nuclear power for the good of our environment and the betterment of our children's and our children's children's future.