Thursday, March 31, 2011

For Every One Death Due to Nuclear Power, 4,000 Die Due to Coal

Seth Godin has a piece over at his blog that points out brilliantly something that I have been saying over and over about the Japan nuclear accident and mass media sensationalism: Things are being blown way out  of proportion


Drama is much more exciting than dull and boring


Seth Godin writes in Triumph of Coal Marketing:


For every person killed by nuclear power generation, 4,000 die due to coal, adjusted for the same amount of power produced... 






Regardless of the facts, too many people are guided by fear. Fear is not rational. 


Seth also links on to another article and chart showing the statistics comparing deaths due to differing energy sources. Interestingly, in one example, even though Solar power accounts for less than 0.1% of world energy and nuclear is 5.9% of world energy, more than ten times more people die annually from Solar power than nuclear power. 


I have pasted the chart here for your convenience:







Energy Source              Death Rate (deaths per TWh)
Coal – world average               161 
Coal – China                       278
Coal – USA                         15
(26% of World Energy - 50% of Electricity)

Oil                                36  
(36% of World Energy)

Natural Gas                         4  
(21% of World Energy)

Biofuel/Biomass                    12
Peat                               12
Solar (rooftop)                     0.44 
(less than 0.1% of World Energy)

Wind                                0.15 
(less than 1% of World Energy)

Hydro                               0.10 
(europe death rate, 2.2% of World Energy)
Hydro - world including Banqiao)    1.4 
(about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead)

Nuclear                             0.04 
(5.9% of World Energy)



It is a lack of information and fear of the unknown that creates this sort of atmosphere amongst the public. I posted some simple, yet excellent and thought provoking videos about nuclear power which I would hope everyone would take 30 minutes to watch.  The odds of you dying from coal related emissions are over 4,000 times higher than the odds of you dying from nuclear power related emissions. If people played the odds and were sensible about this, they wouldn't be moving away from countries with nuclear power but would be moving away from old-fashioned coal burning nations into nations with nuclear power.


But fear is a greater motivator than calm, fact-based rational thinking as fear is an emotional reaction. It is this type of thinking that allows us to do things like, say, buying lottery tickets when you know that you have a greater chance of being killed by lightening than you do of winning the lottery.


Which reminds me that I have to get out and buy tickets for this weekend's lottery. The jackpot is over $3 million dollars, you know!


This is not to mention about how many millions of people have died and continue to die due to wars concerning the control of oil resources. There's no comparison to which have killed more people in the last 60 years: Oil or coal versus nuclear power.


Think about this: Nuclear power plants are not like nuclear weapons. Consider the case of Iran. Under IAEA rules,  Iran, as a signatory, can produce nuclear power, but not  nuclear weapons - as processing Plutonium for a nuclear power plant and processing Plutonium for a nuclear weapon are two totally different animals. They have the technology to make nuclear power, but to make nuclear weapons they would need to process the Plutonium in a technical process that is much more complicated and that process produces a product that is many many times more dangerous than what is produced at a nuclear power plant.


The trouble is that people today have equated nuclear power with the atomic bomb and nuclear weapons. I believe that this is due to years of conditioning and molding due to marketing efforts by the coal and oil industry. I'm glad to see others who are expert at media agreeing with me.  Nuclear power vs. nuclear weaponry? That's like comparing an apple with a herd of bull elephants or - like in the comparison that Seth Godin so aptly displays - like comparing the odds of dying in a car accident or from high blood pressure related diseases to dying in an airplane crash. 


When you live in western society and whenever the facts do not bear out what you believe, you can bet your bottom dollar that most probably tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on marketing, advertising and promotion to help create the ideas that you believe. 

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear Accident & Bloggers

I received an email this morning from Mr. Marc Shaffner who runs the excellent blog Searching for Accurate Maps asking me about why we do this blogging business and our future. I thought it was an excellent question and one I had asked myself several months ago. I think this conversation would be of interest to anyone who is doing Social Media, Social Media Marketing and blogging - or is thinking about blogging. I've written before that blogging blows Social Media away as blogging gives one a base camp; Social media is good but the party is always at someone else's house. With your own blog, the party is at your home and your are the host!

Here's Marc's letter and my reply. I hope you find this exchange useful: 

Mike, 

Out of interest, what is the purpose of your blog (I mean usually, before this nuclear/tsunami mess)? You don't make money out of it (that I can see), you don't sell a product. 
The reason I ask is, because Searching for Accurate Maps is now getting 200 or so visitors/day. 

Once this crisis is over, the blog will lose its focus point and hence its visitors, and I'm trying to think of ways to capitalize (I'm not thinking primarily of money at the moment). 

- Marc

A good question. Here's my reply to Marc:
Hi Marc,
Good morning.
What is the purpose of my blog? Good question. I think I might be like you! I started my blog  because I worked in mass media for so many decades. As a producer, part of my job was selling advertising for programs I produced. 
These last few years saw a rapid decline in advertisers for the Main Stream Mass Media  MSM (this recent event in Japan and the shoddy reporting by that media is one more good reason why) and  that, besides the facts that clients cannot actually count how many people are really watching or listening to a broadcast on the traditional channels made me realize that I had better change and get Internet savvy.
Today, you can go around you and ask many people if they are Internet savvy and most of the people under 45 will tell you they are, but they are fooling themselves. They are not Internet savvy by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think that being able to do email or use Google search or Microsoft office makes anyone Internet savvy. But, many of these people will fool themselves and tell you that they are.

It's laughable when you consider it like that, but it's true.
So, if I wanted to walk the walk and not just talk the talk, I needed to actually do my own blogging and Social Media. I had to do these things and learn by experience on effective ways to write on the Internet and how to use Social Media. There's a million lessons to learn. The only way you can learn them is by doing them yourself. There's even a totally different skill set at titling blog posts for maximum effectiveness.

There's not really any bible on the subject of how to effectively do blogging, Social Media and the Internet, short of David Meerman Scott's "New Rules of PR and Marketing" so the only way to know how it works is by jumping in head first and doing it...
Oh, Marc, how many times I've wanted to quit blogging too! Staring is one thing... Having the drive and perseverance is what makes the big difference. I gather that most people who start a blog quit after three months. But I've held on - in spite of myself - and persisted. I am glad I did.
My blog started out as a blog for Marketing and I wrote about the things I learned everyday concerning the Internet. Then it started to evolve. It is basically, now, about three things (I think) and all relate to Japan:

1) Marketing
2) Mass Media
3) Anything "Japan" that tickles my fancy
I don't run advertising on this blog because I want to fairly criticize if I can and not be compromised. I want to be as honest as I can be. Regretfully, at this very moment, there is a particular company that I need to expose but have been afraid to do so because there is one person at that company who is a great person (the rest? well...) and I don't want to make trouble for that guy... But, that company is messed up and needs to be exposed... I placate my feelings of procrastination because, if you search this companies name on the net and see what people are saying about it, you'll find that few say anything good about it... So, I guess it can wait. 
But I digress... This might sound like bragging but the fact of the matter is that, after doing this for these last 8 months or so, I have gotten over 200,000 visitors to which I am blown away and humbled. I have to thank my friends Mish Shedlock and Lew Rockwell for their fabulous support. Without those guys, I might still be at 20 page views a day (with more than half of those by me!) If you are getting over 200 views a day - and your blog is new - that's excellent! Keep up the good work. I don't think that you will lose readers after this crisis is over for three reasons:
  1. This crisis is going on for a long time... With ups and downs over the next few months, I suspect.
  2. This earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident shows us that it was the bloggers and a very few other minor medai that were doing the truthful reporting on the situation here. The main stream mass media - and even many so-called “Alternative media” were - to put it mildly - basically sucking at their jobs with the fearmongering and crass sensationalism
  3. Your writing quality and style is excellent! Well done, really!
Like, I said, Marc, your writing is very good and level-headed. I may not agree with what you say, but I love the way you say it and think people need differing viewpoints to be able to draw their own conclusions (if, that is, that there are any left who can still think for themselves).
In the book, "New Rules of Marketing and PR" David Meerman Scott talks about doing this blogging and just doing it and learning while you go. He is right.  If you start out with the idea, "OK, I'll blog, but how do I get paid?" Then you are starting out on the wrong foot. In my case, I've actually been hired and paid quite well from two different companies to teach their people how to use the Internet, Social Media and to blog effectively... I've been approached by a few others but I declined because I didn't find their business "fun" nor appealing to me (Translation: I don't use nor even like their products and think they are unhealthy - not just for the body, but for society).  
By having a blog, I can show people with data what I am doing and prove by actions - not just words - that I do know what I am talking about. Well, at least I know more than 99.9% of the other people out there do.

You'd be very surprised by just how many Japanese advertising and PR agencies give advice to clients on how to use the Internet yet none of them actually blog or use Social Media personally. It's like the blind leading the blind.
I think, Marc, that if you consider the situation in Japan - about blogging - then you can see where there are very few people blogging about specific “adult” subjects concerning Japan (and I don’t mean “adult” as in porn). Most Japan blogs are Anime, Manga, Kinky stuff and other frivolity. Those are nice, but I think blogs like yours and mine are few.
Keep up your blog and keep it focused and the rewards will come... You are a great writer and you have no competition as you are probably the only expert in your field blogging in Japan, no?
- Mike

------

See Marc's excellent blog and top quality factual reporting on Japan's nuclear accident and the current status here at Searching for Accurate Maps. http://www.sheffnersweb.net/blogs/accuratemaps/

Japan's Nuclear Disaster and Wall of Shame Reporting

As you've read here at this blog basically from day one of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident crisis in Japan, the western media has been having a field day with the over the top sensationalist reporting. Please! Click on the video and then read on! You just can't make this stuff up!
SHIRLEY & COMPANY - SHAME SHAME SHAME

Well, now more and more people are starting to go on record taking these clowns to task. It's too bad that too many people consider the news god's gospel truth instead of tabloid sensationalism because that's what it basically is.

Pull up a chair, grab a beer, and get ready for some really humorous stuff.

Thank god, there are many others, besides me, who have been skeptical and suspicious from the start and many more people are finally waking up to the prospect that, once again, the mass media is not to be believed by any stretch of the imagination.


There's a guy who writes a blog called, "Squeeze Box Press." I don't know his name but he gets a hero award from me. In his post of March 17th, 2011 entitled: 

WHY BAD JOURNALISM HAS DRIVEN ME TO DESPERATE ENDS



He explains that he is starting a Wall of Shame to list up all this crap reporting. It is a wonderful read too. He writes: 



In retrospect, I should have had this idea before, but I guess today I just hit critical mass (not sure if it’s appropriate to use a nuclear energy turn of phrase here): one too many pieces of bad journalism.

So I decided to start a wiki Bad Journalism Wall of Shame and invite some of the other people who were frustrated with some of the shoddy, alarmist, and shockingly wrong journalism we’ve seen since last Friday’s Tohoku quake.

I take everything I read with a grain of salt these days, and have for many years.  When I read an article or see a television report that makes sensational claims, I try to fact check on my own, because I no longer trust most journalists to have done it for me.  There are several major areas that journalists particularly suck at:

  • Science reporting.  I have a degree in fine arts, and I could write better science articles than most science writers could.  Any journalist who suggested that Fukushima could be “another Chernobyl” should be made to retake his 9th grade science class and then have his journalist license revoked.   Oh wait…
  • Reporting on Japan.  JAPAN IS SOOO WEIRD!  JAPANESE PEOPLE HAVE NO EMOTION!  If everything you think you know about Japan was learned from the movies Gung Ho and Mr. Baseball, then maybe you’re not qualified to write an article about Japan.  Also, spending a few days, hell, even a month in Japan (probably in a hotel or furnished apartment, or otherwise isolated location) does not make you an expert on the place.  Nor does interviewing someone who has lived here for a few months (or even year, if living in one of the many gaijin bubbles).
  • Disaster reporting.  Two and a half words: Exaggeration and fear-mongering.
This is not new information.  Not to me, and probably not to you.  However, in the aftermath of the quake, all three of these elements joined together to create (to use a term journalists are so fond of using themselves) the “perfect storm”.  News piece after news piece full of inaccuracies, misinterpretations, and just plain lies.  (My favourites are the photos, shown out-of-context.  For instance, showing a photo of a girl in a surgical-style mask and implying that she was wearing it due to radiation, while the reality is that we’re in allergy season here and many people wear masks to keep pollen at bay.)

The worst offenders are the 24-hour news networks.  A few hours into the quake, I stopped looking at them.  The problem there (as we learned during the 9/11 coverage) is that the anchors feel like they have to keep talking to fill dead air, which means that they inevitably end up saying dumbass things.

But no news source gets off scot free.  Some seem to make stuff up, others seem to repeat rumours floating around in the electronic ether, while others interview obvious idiots or crazies and take what they say as gospel truth.  Some, I think, pick information up from another news source, and never bother to check it for accuracy.


This last paragraph is particularly damning and I think right on target. But I am of the opinion that, even more disasterous for everyone is not so much the actual reporting, but the fact that so many people actually believe this stuff! What planet are these people living on?


When will people ever learn? I hear that in the old Soviet Union that the Russian people didn't believe anything that Pravda said because they knew it was propaganda... You'd have thought that western society would have produced more discerning intelligent people... But I guess not.


This guy then goes on to explain what the Wall of Shame is all about: Atrocious, bad, malicious and/or fear mongering reporting going on in the western media and how he wants to put them all on record. He writes:


This Wall of Shame is being assembled by various people, many of whom are on the ground in Japan as residents, not temporarily assigned journalists, who are sick of the sensationalist, overly speculative, and just plain bad reporting that has gone on since the Tohoku quake in Japan on March 11. We feel that contacting each and every publication and reporter every time a bad report shows up independently is not effective, and it is our sincere hope that this will encourage journalists to aspire to a higher (some would say minimal) level of responsibility in their reports. If you would like to add a report of your own, feel free. What can you do if you've read some of the articles listed here and you want to do something? We're compiling a list of press organizations to which you can complain HERE.


I highly recommend that you go to the Wall of Shame and view this artwork in progress. Here are just a few of my favorites (many others are not listed yet):  


Germany's BILD Zeitung gets an award for total nonsense:


Headline titling "Atomic Horror" mit 4 (!) exclamation marks. The picture on the front shows a person with gas mask/some suit against radioactive pollution. In the background a devastated landscape is shown. On first sight it looks like a nuclear desert, however it is a picture from the destruction caused by the Tsunami. 
On the next pages they ask: "And what´s up with the Sushi 
in the restaurants? Can we still eat it"?  (emphasis mine)


Even the alternative media get in on the act of ridiculous reporting with Kurt Nimmo's nonsense in Infowars.com:


Comparing Fukushima to Chernobyl;

Fear-Mongering Headline "Japanese Nuclear Meltdown Would Be Hundreds of Times Worse Than Chernobyl" with no supporting evidence;

Grotesque factual errors: "The 480-megawatt Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is a hundred times more powerful than the ill-fated reactor at the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine." In fact Chernobyl reactors were 1000 MWe while Reactor 1 at Fukushima Daiichi is 480 MWe, less than half Chernobyl's power.



We're doomed!


Oh, no! Not Scientific American!? Yes. Scientific American too needs to sell ad space. They allow writer Steve Mirsky off his leash to fan the flames of panic:


"Radioactive waste dump for years to come." and "This is going to be like Chernobyl." Scientific American joins the ranks of popular journalism. Added offense severity points for retaining the word 'scientific' in their name. (emphasis mine)


If you are intelligent and sick and tired of the mass media sensationalism (but I repeat myself) you can see much much more at the Wall of Shamehttp://jpquake.wikispaces.com/Journalist+Wall+of+Shame


Thanks so much to the Wall of Shame, Ray Hearn

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Where Do We Stand Today on Japan Nuclear Accident?

Just where do we really stand today on Japan's nuclear Accident? Depending on what you read, we are either on the precipice of disaster or the media is way over-blowing the story.


Regular readers of this blog know where I stand; it's the same place I always stand when the media starts screaming "death and disaster": Eyes wide open and a skeptical smirk on my face.


I get the Casey Research Daily Newsletter. I highly recommend it for folks who need level headed, rational approaches to the economy and how it shapes our world. Their catch copy is "Intensely Curious, Focused on Facts." You can subscribe for free to the Daily Newsletter here.


The most recent Casey Report deals with the Fukushima Nuclear reactors and the economic ramifications of this situation. Their summation of the situation is clear and factual; it is not filled with conjecture and "what ifs."


18 Days Later... 


By The Casey Energy Team
Twelve days ago, uranium equities were in free fall. Five days after Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, the leader of the uranium sector, Cameco (T.CCO), had lost 19% and would continue to drop all day to close almost 24% below its pre-Fukushima level. The price of uranium had fallen 27%. The world was suddenly full of nuclear physicists saying the reactors will blow, they won’t blow, it isn’t dangerous, but it could be deadly. Energy analysts were equally divergent: many proclaimed the end of the nuclear era, while others predicted a serious but short impact on the world’s view of nuclear power.
Moving ahead another six days, it seems like little has changed. On deeper inspection, though, things are quite different. Most importantly, the potential for a major catastrophe has decreased significantly. The Japanese are sparing no effort in their battle against overheating nuclear fuel and are oh-so-slowly being rewarded: one by one, the reactors are being cooled and contained. Fukushima is far from stable but, compared to that first week, there is now some confidence that we have averted a calamitous meltdown.
As most of us now know, there are six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Three of those reactors – No. 4, 5 and 6 – were shut down when the earthquake hit, but the other three were in full operation. Reactors 1, 2 and 3 all turned themselves off when the ground started to shake, but then the tsunami wiped out the plant’s back-up diesel generators, leaving all six reactors unable to circulate the vital cooling water.
The six reactors then took turns grabbing headlines. In the first few days, one spectacular hydrogen explosion after another blew apart the buildings housing reactors 1, 2 and 3. A fire broke out in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4. Insufficient water left the fuel rods in the first three reactors exposed for various periods. Then the spent fuel pools at 5 and 6 started to heat up. Observers keep seeing white smoke emerge from the buildings. Workers keep being pulled back from their tasks because of radiation spikes. No one really knows whether any of the all-important containment vessels that seal each reactor off from the world are damaged.
From the available information, here is how things stand right now.
Reactor 1: The best-off of the three reactors that were operational when the quake hit. The core of the reactor is damaged (there has been some core meltdown), but it appears the containment vessel is intact. Controlling the temperature and pressure has been difficult, but the reactor is now considered relatively stable.
Reactor 2: TEPCO believes the containment vessel around reactor 2 was breached in the hydrogen explosion that blew the building apart. The breach cannot be a large gash, however, because the vessel still maintains high pressures. The core is also damaged. Water carrying high-level radiation is leaking from the reactor, the radiation either coming from the breach or from damaged vents and valves on the reactor.
Reactor 3: Currently the most concerning reactor at the plant, as water with high levels of radiation has flooded the turbine building. As with reactor 2, the radiation is either coming from a breach in the containment vessel or from broken valves and vents. If there is a breach, it must be small as the containment vessel is still holding pressure. Reactor 3 is also the only reactor at the plant that feeds on a combination of plutonium and uranium, a fuel known as MOX, which is considered more dangerous because plutonium accumulates more easily in the body.
Reactors 4-6: All considered stable. The only concern is the spent fuel pool at reactor 4, which is very full and might be damaged. At present it is stable and cooling slowly, but the threat there has not yet passed.
TEPCO workers are now working between a rock and a hard place. They have to keep pumping water into the reactors to keep the fuel rods covered, but they also need to pump out and safely contain the contaminated water that is seeping out of reactors 2 and 3. On Monday, that radioactive water had found its way into deep trenches that run around reactors 1, 2 and 3 carrying pipes and wiring. To complicate things, the condenser and storage tanks that are usually used for contaminated water are almost full.
They have restored power to much of the facility, though not all of the cooling circuits have been restarted because of damage or inaccessibility. From here, TEPCO faces a protracted battle to dry out the plant, restore power completely, and cool the whole thing down. That final step will take time – spent fuel rods take years to cool.
Some 70,000 people have been evacuated from a 20 km radius, while another 130,000 living within the next 10 km have been encouraged to leave because the region will not return to normalcy anytime soon. Authorities in Fukushima prefecture have screened almost 90,000 people for radiation exposure; of those, 98 tested above safety limits, but all were cleared once they removed their clothes and washed. Elevated levels of radiation have turned up in raw milk and 11 types of vegetables, while seven locations are under drinking water restrictions (six only concern infants).
More generally, the earthquake and tsunami have left 660,000 households without water and 209,000 without power. A quarter of a million people are displaced or homeless. The death toll has now climbed above 10,000, with more than 17,400 still missing.
This is excellent, factual reporting that is a huge breath of fresh air over the rest of the main stream mass media. Here's some more sensationalist nonsense that appeared in the Guardian UK in Japan May Have Lost Race to Save Nuclear Reactor.
This article is already suspicious from the outset as it even has the words "May Have" in the title. "May Have" is conjecture. Conjecture is a transitive verb. It means to guess.
Conjecture: to arrive at or deduce by surmise or guesswork : guessconjecturing that a disease is caused by a defective gene>
A trained eye would have caught that immediately. It is a guess, it it not proven nor based upon fact.
The entire article goes on filled with this sort of guesswork: 




The radioactive core in a reactor at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on to a concrete floor, experts say, raising fears of a major release of radiation at the site.
Richard Lahey, who was head of safety research for boiling-water reactors at General Electric when the company installed the units at Fukushima, told the Guardian workers at the site appeared to have "lost the race" to save the reactor, but said there was no danger of a Chernobyl-style catastrophe.
At least part of the molten core, which includes melted fuel rods and zirconium alloy cladding, seemed to have sunk through the steel "lower head" of the pressure vessel around reactor two, Lahey said.
From "May Have" to "appears to" to "seemed to have" the article is filled with fiction and guess work. The only thing that is stated as fact is this line: "...no danger of a Chernobyl-style catastrophe."


Finally, we have suggestions, but no hard facts:
"The indications we have, from the reactor to radiation readings and the materials they are seeing, suggest that the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel in unit two, and at least some of it is down on the floor of the drywell," Lahey said. "I hope I am wrong, but that is certainly what the evidence is pointing towards."
Then the article finishes with this guy saying, "I hope I am wrong." 


"I hope I am wrong?!" Are you kidding me?


So, what you want to say is that you just wasted my time reading an article filled with your guesswork that has little basis in fact and reality. Nearly everything was total and complete conjecture.


Folks, this might sound like an advertisement, but there is no comparison in the quality of writing and reporting between the Guardian UK and Casey's Daily Dispatch.
It's too bad that way too many people today don't get a good enough education to be able to differentiate between factual reporting and conjecture. 
Like I said, if you are interested in economics and how they relate to our world - with quality writing and reporting - then I highly recommend Casey's Daily Dispatch. 


There is also a great blog that I just discovered today that I highly recommend written by a foreigner living in Japan. His name is Marc Sheffner and he runs the Searching for Accurate Maps blog. Marc does a much better job of deconstructing this Guardian article than I ever could.


In a recent post entitled, "Why I don't read newspapers (2)" he wrote:





There has been a bigger-than-usual amount of scare-mongering and panic-fostering amongst the news media over the Japanese disasters recently. Here is an example from today. This is a good example of why I refuse to read newspapers.
First the headline: Fukushima workers exposed to illegal radiation levels. (this is a cached page: the Guardian has since changed its headline). Note the eye-catching, inflammatory headline.
Then it says, “Six workers at the Fukushima nuclear power plant have been exposed to radiation levels beyond the usual legal limit while carrying out emergency operations to make the complex safe.”
“beyond the usual limits” is not the same as “illegal”. Further down, it says, “The Kyodo news agency reported that Tepco said six staff members had been exposed to more than 100 millisieverts of radiation…” and in the next paragraph it reported, “The government earlier increased to 250 mSv the limit for those working in the emergency operation.”
Earlier. That means before the workers had been exposed to more than 100 millisieverts. In other words, it was not illegal, because the government had already raised the permitted dosage level.


.........


Newspapers cannot be trusted. They lie, shamelessly. Their purpose is not to propagage true information, but to sell eyeballs to their advertisers. Hence headlines that will grab attention are chosen. If they are not actually true or factual or accurate, well, who cares! They can always change it later, or make some excuse.
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...