Narita Foreign Passengers Down 63% Yomiuri Newspaper The number offoreignpassengerson international flightsusing Narita airport in April has dropped 63% compared to Aprila year earlier. It was the largest ever drop. The earthquake, tsunami and problems in eastern Japan along with the Fukushima Daiichinuclear power plantaccidentfurther reduced travelers using the airport by 34%..
Of course, not all of this drop can be attributed to the earthquake as many international carriers began overseas service out of the more convenient Haneda airport nearer central Tokyo, but this is still a massive drop and a surprise to all.
I am astounded that the media can actually report such nonsense as what I have just seen. The headlines read: Japan Falls Back Into Recession After Quake. Are you kidding me? Japan has been in a recession for two decades. What kind of rubbish reporting is this?
Yahoo reports:
Japan's economy plunged back into recession in January-March, contracting sharply on the impact of the nation's biggest recorded earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear crisis, data showed Thursday. The economy shrank by a much worse-than-expected 3.7 percent year on year, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction, which economists define as a technical recession. In the aftermath of the disasters, output saw its biggest ever fall and spending plunged while consumer and business confidence took a tumble.
Consumers have held off spending on non-essentials such as entertainment and travel.
Well, of course they did, Einstein. The mayor of Tokyo told us that we weren't to celebrate the cherry blossom season with the traditional festivities, the biggest festival in Japan, Sanjya Matsuri was cancelled, our electricity was cut in many places, and we couldn't even buy water - we still can't - in many areas.
And these Keynesian clowns think this is falling "back" into recession? They must be joking. We've been in a recession for over twenty years.
I recently concluded an interview with a new publication that is under the support of Casey Research and that publication s called the International Man. It is a publication geared towards the expat or people thinking of expatration out of the USA or other western nations into the developing world in order to find their success and new opportunities.
We spoke of many things related to Japan and one of the most difficult questions dealt with the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident. I was asked how this chain of events would affect the Japanese and world economy.
Not to belittle a serious situation, I replied that, in and of itself, the disaster followed by the nuclear accident at Fukushima is, in the long run view of things in Japan, a blip on the screen. The nuclear problems in Fukushima are serious to be sure, but for the over-all view of Japan, that alone is not such a huge event. It is the ping-pong effect that this incident is going to have on Japan that is difficult to access the total damage that it will cause. Specifically, how much bungling will the incompetents running this country into the ground will cause with their ill-conceived and poorly considered "solutions".
Consider: There are only 750,000 people living in the Miyagi area where the earthquake and tsunami struck hardest. This disaster and the nuclear power plant accident has displaced about 400,000 (if anyone has exact figures, please send along!). Had this accident happened in Hamaoka or Tokai, south of Tokyo, it would have been an entirely different story. There are 35 million households in the Tokyo area alone.
At the end of World War II, Japan had over 2 million dead soldiers. Almost 1 million dead civilians and her cities were carpet bombed into ruin. Yet Japan recovered. This earthquake, tsunami and nuclear incident is in a small corner of Japan. Once again, not to belittle a very dire and serious situation, but it is the aftereffects of this situation - combined with Japan's debt versus GDP and a rapidly aging society - along with an exodus of cheap foreign labor that's what's really going to hurt this country.
The actual disaster is bad enough. But it is the after effects that are going to kill us. You've heard the expression that the "Cure is worse than the disease?" Well here is a case example happening in slow motion right in front of our faces. It is the "ping-pong" effect. And the repercussions of this ping pong effect are spreading wider and wider and everyday brings a new facet to this problem as it continually evolves.
That ping-pong effect could have very serious and long term effects and cause huge damage to the Japanese economy and, in turn, seriously hurt the world economy.
One of the worst things to come out of the Fukushima accident is, not only radiation leaking out into the ocean is - quite surprisingly - the fact that radiation has been detected in unsafe levels in tea leaves in farms in Odawara - south of Tokyo. This is very bad for those farmers and a real head scratcher as to how this has come about. It also, on the other hand, dampens complaints that some people have about the government covering up and lying about the radiation levels. If the government were always lying and covering up as some claim, then this information would have never seen the light of day. I'll be the first to suggest that everyone should be skeptical of everything they hear and see on the mass media or from what the government says, but I also have always said that each person needs to research facts. This is why I list the radiation levels in Tokyo that are published daily by a non-governmental, science research group, the Advanced Science and Technology Unit. on this blog. See here. This group does not publish conjecture and just facts as to daily radiation levels. (The fact that a government group has also researched a published results of radiation levels in food in Fukushima, Miyagi and now Kanagawa proves that there are reliable reports coming out about radiation levels of concern to the public well-being.)
But, in the long run, and for the over-all view of the health of the nation, let's examine briefly the shockingly great deal (poor deal for the public) the Japanese government has given to TEPCO, the owners of the nuclear power plant, to bail out that company. First off, any thinking person should be dead set against a government bailout of any privately owned company. Why do privately owned companies get to enjoy profits (TEPCO charges the highest utility rates in the region and owns 44% of the market and is the #1 energy company in all of Asia) and pocket them but when they lose money, they get bailed out by the public? It is also a crime that TEPCO carried no casualty insurance. (Global Research has a great article on this here.) You or I lose our drivers license if we have no car insurance but a big company in bed with the government can run a nuclear power plant without insurance!?
The bailout package is $62 billion (USD). Japan cannot afford this bailout. It is, also, not really a bailout as such. There will be no bonds issued. TEPCO has 30 years to repay so the actual plan is to have the Japanese government print our way out of this mess.
Throw on top of that the point that a privately owned company is giving up some control to the government and you really have to wonder what people are thinking about. Why in the world would anyone want such an inept and useless bunch of people like the Japanese government - a government who has nearly bankrupted this nation - to take over a privately owned corporation? I think this is beyond comprehension.
Think about it folks, we are already at 225% debt to GDP. This debt is growing like a dangerous anuerism near the heart of the public. Giving this government more control and more leeway to spend and throw money at problems is not the solution. Adding another $62 billion dollars to Japan's debt mountain is not going to help us at all. The public has shown a willingness to save, but the government has not shown a willingness to stop the spend and the printing. This, plus a recession, deflation, aging population, exodus of cheap foreign labor, and some more problems that will surely pop up as we go - just as sure as the sun will rise in the east - shows that it is not the actual disaster that is going to kill us.
The thing that is going to do us in is not the disease (all of our problems). It's the cure prescribed by the fools running Japan's government (easy credit, printing money and more debt) that will surely kill us all.
Judging from the way things are going and how the government's answer to problems is always the same, it shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone when the day sooncomes that Japan's debt to GDP nears 250% ~ 300%. Could it be that far off? I don't think so.
“I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day.” - James Joyce
So many things have changed after the March 11 disaster. Golden Week is over in Japan and, definitely yes, life is returning to normal here in Tokyo.
Many people lost their lives, loved ones, their homes and livelihoods. The world turned upside down for so many people that day. There are a very many who continue the struggle. Our prayers are with them.
“Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail.” - Charles F. Kettering
Even for many of us far away from the epicenter of the disaster the effects are still being felt today.
Business in many sectors of Japan have been severely damaged and still haven't recovered. Due to this aftershock many people I know have had their incomes cut to the extremes and some have even lost their jobs.
Yesterday, I was floored to hear that one of my dear friends, who has been the program director at a major FM station in Tokyo has lost his position and has been transferred out. He was quite blue about it.
I know of companies whose entire business plan was tossed into the air due to the Tohoku disaster. I know some small companies that even lost over $1 million dollars due to the events of that day.
“They can conquer who believe they can.” - Virgil
Everyone must rise up and not be depressed. Better days are coming. Yes, we have lost much, but look at how much we have gained. We are stronger for this experience and it will help us grow into the people that we are destined to become.
Immediately Jesus reached out his hand and caught him. "You of little faith," he said, "why did you doubt?" - Matthew 14:31
Make no mistake about it; if you are one of the survivors then better days are coming and we are destined for greater things and greater personal glory. Believe in the good that is coming your way and have faith in positive thinking and positive actions. Do not despair. The best thing we can do for those people up north and the best thing we can do for ourselves and our children is to get our lives back together and get them back to normal.
Despair is not a healthy state of mind. Being busy, productive and positive are very healthy states of mind. It is up to you to choose.
We must always be thankful for what we have and be ever thankful for all the good things we are about to receive. Today is the first day of the rest of your life and it can be the best day so far if you make it that way.
Believe Onward and upward!
"Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy." - Norman Vincent Peale
You'd think it would be just too completely insane and outrageous to try to link the natural disaster in northern Japan with Man-Made Global Warming (AGW) but this guy tries to do it.
He is a miserable failure.
Actually, this is funny... Well.... it would be funny excepting far too many people will believe this to be true.
"... scientists have for the first time released a study that indicates that man made changes to our climate are also quite probably effecting the movement of tectonic plates around the globe as well. The implications oftheir researchare far ranging as well as frightening:
An Australian-led team of researchers from France and Germany found that the strengthening Indian monsoon had accelerated movement of the Indian plate over the past 10 million years by a factor of about 20 percent.
Read that again. It says, "the strengthening Indian monsoon had accelerated movement of the Indian plate over the past 10 million years by a factor of about 20 percent." You call that frightening? Did you know the sun will burnout in about 4.57 billions years? Now that's scary!
"Laffaldano stressed that his study did not mean that global warming would translate to stronger earthquakes happening more often, with the relevant patterns developing over "the order of millions of years."
"Of course earthquakes do occur at the boundaries between plates because of plate motions, but our work doesn't imply at all that we will see an increase in these types of events," he told AFP.
Gee.... Well, what does that mean? He just said 10 million years in the previous paragraph. That's a long time too. Homo sapiens (that's us - in spite of your sexual preferences) didn't even appear on earth until about 120,000 years ago. How could anyone equate that with AGW? I mean, how could anyone with a brain larger than half a peanut equate that with AGW?
Logically, I don't know. But the writer of this article tries to do it.
Millions of years running fossil fuel guzzlers like this 150 million year B.C. Dino model has raped the environment and destroyed the landscape. Is it too late to reverse the Global Warming damage we've done? Many scientists say it is, "Yabba dabba doo?"
The article continues:
Lead researcher Giampiero Iaffaldano (sic) said Wednesday that although scientists have long known that tectonic movements influence climate by creating new mountains and sea trenches, his study was the first to show the reverse.
And where, pray tell is this guy's evidence? Not to be found in the article at all. The writer continues with this idiocy:
I am no scientist, but many scientists have been telling us that the changes we see are now locked in and will occur even if we ended all carbon, methane and other greenhouse gases today.
Nope. You are right. As for the first point, no argument there. You are no scientist. You are also definitely not trained well enough to be a decent reporter who checks facts either. Many scientists have been telling us!? Oh, really? Like who, may I ask? Mr. Giampiero Laffaldano? No, he hasn't. In fact, upon checking, it looks like you, Mr. Writer (who is only named as "Steven D" on the credits - no wonder!) have been taking Mr. Laffaldano's research way out of context. Shame on you! Not only are you a crap writer, Steven D., you are dishonest too... No wonder you are too embarrassed or ashamed to put your real name on such drivel!
In his report about this very same subject, that you are quoting, Mr. Laffaldano, says nothing about AGW. He only speaks about long term climate change in the terms of millions of years. I already pointed out that us humanoids have only been here for about 120,000. There's a pretty hefty difference between 120,000 and tens of millions... But hey! What's a few coins change amongst friends, right, Stevie? Here is a direct quote from Mr. Giampiero Laffaldano's own report:
“The 100km-thick outer shell of Earth, the lithosphere, is divided into pieces called tectonic plates. Plates move in different directions at speeds in the order of centimetres per year, comparable to the speed of fingernail growth in humans.
“The significance of this finding lies in recognising for the first time that long-term climate changes have the potential to act as a force and influence the motion of tectonic plates," said Iaffaldano.
"It is known that certain geologic events caused by plate motions – for example the drift of continents, the closure of ocean basins and the building of large mountain belts – have the ability to influence climate patterns over a period of a million years.
"Now we know that the opposite holds as well: long-term climate change, or the natural changes in climate patterns over millions of years, can modify the motion of plates in a feedback mechanism.”
Steven D., the writer of this tripe then goes on to say,
"We are now only at a point where the only valid debate the extent of the damage (sic) that will occur to life on this planet if we can end or do not curb greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities that are driving climate change."
We are now at the point "where the only valid debate the extent of the damage"? Atrocious writing. Simply terrible. Does Stevie mean, "Where the only valid debate is the extent of the damage?" or "Where only the valid debate the extent of the damage?" 'Valid,' in this case, I suppose, would be meaning the people 'who are qualified and not nuts.' I think. This sentence is so poorly written that I have a hard time understanding what the writer really wants to say.
The reason I am not sure what this clown, Steve D., wants to say is that, like yesterday's posting showed, here is another person who fails miserably at the basic skill of critical reading and analytical reasoning. This sort of article is laughable. No wonder he doesn't sign his name.
Too bad far too many people read this nonsense and believe it without examining it for faults and poor reasoning.
Seriously. How embarrassing.... Embarrassing for the writer and the gullible reader both. The writer can't be helped. But at least he's smart enough to know to hide his identity and lock the door when he writes this science fiction tripe. Too bad there will be far too may readers (one is too many) who will read this crock and use it as evidence of AGW. Pathetic. Really.
"I'm an old man now and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened." - Mark Twain
Today is most likely the first day marking the return of normality to Tokyo and most of Japan. The Golden Week holiday has ended and some people will return to work today. Everyone will return to work on Monday.
BEATLES - HERE COMES THE SUN
I say that this is the return to normality as, because this holiday has ended, it marks a sort of "chapter ending" concerning the Tohoku disaster.
The Fukushima nuclear reactor problem is still not fixed and is a problem for those near the reactor, but, as I had written many times and has been confirmed by numerous nuclear experts before, during and still today that the nuclear reactor accident has little to do with Tokyo.
Tokyo is 230 kilometers away from Fukushima. The prevailing winds in Japan blow from the south or the west. It's been that way for probably a hundred million years. I imagine it will stay that way for the next. Probably the last time the prevailing winds blew from north to south in Japan was when the north pole was the south pole several hundreds of millions of years ago. Remember that? No?
There is no threat from the damaged reactor in Fukushima to Tokyo. There never was in spite of the sensationalist news reporting and the senseless panic of many people living here. Next time there is some sort of "end of the world problem" those who ran away should always remember the Mark Twain quote at the top of this post. Here it is again:
"I'm an old man now and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened." - Mark Twain
Since today is the first day after the ending of Golden Week, and spring is here. I knew it was time to go out and start promoting and living again. I decided that I would go around the shopping street and my neighborhood asking building and shop owners if I could display posters for the St. Mary's International Carnival being held on May 14th.
Of course, this is Japan, and when I ask for a favor to these people I must bow my head and be very humble and excessively polite. This year, because of the mood after the earthquake and tsunami, I had to be even more polite than usual.
The Hara family lives nearby. The Hara's family must have been farm owners many years ago as they now own huge apartment buildings in this area as well as a massive home. For the last three years, I have asked Mrs. Hara if I can place posters on her walls surrounding these apartment buildings.
As I mentioned, this year, I felt that I must be even more humble and polite, here's a direct translation of what I said;
"Mrs. Hara, I'm so sorry to disturb you when you must be so very busy. Pardon me. I am so sorry to ask such a selfish thing. The International school is having our annual festival and due to the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami disaster, we decided to donate 100% of the proceeds to charity to help those affected.... I know it might seem frivolous to have a festival in this mood of the country, but, since we had already planned to festival, we decided to go on and try to do our part to help out. May I have your permission to hang these posters?"
Mrs. Hara very much surprised me when she said, "Of course! Don't worry that you are hurting anyone's feelings. The time to mourn is over. We have to start to live again. Please hang your posters and thank you so much for helping out us Japanese at this time."
This really surprised me. Actually, I was sort of shocked. She was so happy that this dumb neighborhood gaijin and his friends were doing something to help out.
After that I walked the neighborhood and down the shopping center. It was Golden Week so many shops were closed. I asked every shop that was open the same thing I asked Mrs. Hara and their attitude was basically the same. I had no problem hanging the posters and I felt good that I was doing some positive PR for the foreign community.
I also noticed as I walked around that there were no other posters announcing "fun" events at all. So maybe we will be the first in the neighborhood.
Yes, as I walked around, I felt good. Summer in Japan is just around the corner and it looks like it's going to be fine.
Mish Shedlock from the Global Economic Trend Analysis Blog has sent me a link to his latest post showing a shocking one-two double punch whammy of extremely bad news for the Japanese economy. If you are interested in money and the economy, the Mish's blog is a daily must-read.
Immediately after the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami, foolish Japanese politicians told the Japanese public that we should not be trying to live our lives normally. Shintaro Ishihara, the mayor of Tokyo, even told people that the traditional "Hanami" celebrations should be cancelled this year.
Hanami is an old tradition whereby the Japanese go to park and eat and drink with friends under the cherry blossoms.
Due to these sorts of short-sighted pronouncements, many famous Japanese festivals were cancelled and the country went into a sort of mourning like that of a funeral. Things still haven't gotten 100% back to normal. Now, because of these ill considered pronouncements, the Japanese people, businesses and the economy are paying the price.
The best thing the people could do is try to get their lives back in order as soon as possible as get back to work and get the economy back on track. In that way, with a strong economy, can we help those poor people who suffered in Tohoku in this terrible tragedy. But, no! The government wonks made their dumb announcements and now we are paying the price.
Japan prime minister Naoto Kan has announced his idea for reconstruction but he's not said how he will pay for it. The idea to raise taxes was floated but that died a quick death - especially after Kan's party got trashed in local elections this last Sunday. Now, ratings agencies suspect what I fear; more Japanese government debt.
That's the last thing we need. Mish writes:
Japan’s sovereign-rating outlook was cut to “negative” by Standard & Poor’s as the nation’s reconstruction needs following last month’s earthquake will likely add to what’s already the world’s biggest debt load.
The outlook on Japan’s local-currency debt rating, at AA-, the fourth-highest grade, was lowered from “stable,” S&P said in a statement today. The company had reduced the rating by one step in January in the first cut since 2002. Moody’s Investors Service said last month the disaster may bring forward the “tipping point” for the country’s bond market.
Today’s decision adds to pressure on Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who has yet to detail how the rebuilding will be paid for and how he plans to rein in longer-term fiscal deficits. As public spending increases, revenue will likely decline because of the economic hit from the disaster, with a report today showing retail sales tumbled the most in 13 years last month.
Moody’s today reported no change to its negative outlook for Japan's Aa2 grade rating, the third highest, after a reduction from “stable” in February because of political gridlock. Japan’s public debt will probably increase 5.8 percent to 997.7 trillion yen ($12.2 trillion) in the year started April 1, from a projected 943.1 trillion yen last year, the Finance Ministry said in January.
As I predicted in December of 2010, Naoto Kan will be gone by summer. That's the good news. The bad news? That will do nothing for Japan's political stability and our credit rating and economic outlook.
The only thing we can say for certain is that it looks to be a long hot summer in 2011.
Once again, the news shows that our rulers never learn their lessons when it comes to taxation and debt. After the disastrous events of the last month starting on March 11th and continuing today, once again, the government of this country shows that their only answer to our financial problems is to raise taxes.
Tokyo, April 18 (Jiji Press)--Japan is considering raising the consumption tax by 3 percentage points for a limited period of some three years to secure funds to rebuild areas devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, officials said Monday.
Japan will be able to secure 7.5 trillion in annual tax revenue by raising the tax rate to 8 pct from 5 pct, government and Democratic Party of Japan officials said.
The nation is preparing the first supplementary budget for fiscal 2011 with the spending amount of some 4 trillion yen. The budget will be covered without new debt issuance.
Tokyo is likely to compile more budgets for the current year, as many in the government and the ruling party believe that more than 10 trillion yen should be spent in total on the reconstruction of the disaster-devastated areas.
To finance the second and later budgets, the government will issue reconstruction bonds. Many think that the revenue from the envisioned tax hike should be used entirely to redeem the reconstruction bonds, the officials said.
It says in the first paragraph, "Japan is considering raising the consumption tax by 3 percentage points for a limited period of some three years..." Sure. Only three years, right? And after that, we're supposed to believe that the Japanese government will have their financial house in such good order and fine shape that they can cut taxes? What planet are these people living on? Has the Japanese government ever cut taxes? How, pray tell, are they supposed to be able to do that when the economy is so bad and, as I mentioned, our public debt has surpassed 200% of GDP?
History also shows us what happens when sales taxes are raised. There will be a correlating drop in sales equal to the percentage of the sales tax; raise taxes by three percent and sales will drop by three percent. And who winds up paying for this kind of sales tax hike? Not the ultra-rich or corporations who have all sorts built-in tax advantages. The rich only have to spend a few percentage points of their income for basic foodstuffs. The average middle class household is spending 15~25% or more just for survival. Hit them with a sales tax increase and you hit them below the belt.
The good example goes like this: Say, average millionaire wants to buy a new yacht? No problem. It's needed to entertain guest so it is a business and tax write-off. But, say, the single mother with a two kids whose husband has run off and doesn't pay any alimony, is not buying yachts and diamond necklaces, she is scrimping and saving to buy milk, eggs and rice. and the basics she needs to survive.
A 3% hike in her grocery bill hits hard.
The average household is is also expected to carry the burden of massive public debt created by the government. It is this government who arbitrarily decides to tax one class of poor people to give to another class of poor people (in this case, the average Japanese family gets taxed to pay for the suffering and reconstruction of the poor who suffered in the Tohoku disaster) all the while the government takes a margin for delivering these services and gives no-bid reconstruction contracts to their cronies.
And, with all of that, with all of this suffering and misery caused by badly thought out government policies, these people want to raise taxes? They must be completely insane.
Japan owns trillions of dollars in US government bonds that were bought with tax monies taken from the public. The value of these bonds have lost some 40% over these last 10 years due to the rapid decline of the US dollar, yet, even with this, the Japanese government has painted Japan into a corner whereby we cannot unload this debt without causing a quick rise in the yen and hurting Japan's export economy.
Silver & gold price explosion is flashing warning signs about the economy
Gold breaks new record to $1503 the day of the posting of this article
The fact of the matter is that, for reconstruction, as Peter Schiff points out, Japan should want a stronger yen as that would make our buying of oil and raw materials as well as other items needed to rebuild the ravaged areas cheaper.
But, no! As usual, when it comes to doing something about the economy, the government cannot admit its errors and try to strip them away. As is the case now, and has always been the case, the government of Japan's answer to financial problems is not to cut spending or to sell poorly valued and foolishly bought US government backed securities (that lose value every day), but the answer is, and always will be to spend and raise taxes.
The politicians who live on dead and proven failure Keynesian economic policies are leading this country down the road to ruin. It will be soon enough, at this rate, that Japan will be like the Philippines. Throw this situation in with how the youth of this country have no where near the dedicated and hard work ethics of their fathers and grandfathers and you have a chemistry that spells out for a very grim economic future indeed
When we look back at what happened in twenty years from now, we'll not be surprised for a second that Japan will be jokingly referred to as the Northern Philippine archipelago.
